Whilst Karachiites were all set to brave the much created media hype of cyclone (tropical revolving storm), they were actually scared of "budget storm". In spite of the cyclone hype, businessmen gathered to listen to the budget speech at various trade forums.
The presentation made by Finance Minister Dr Hafeez Sheikh, at times extempore, was highly commendable and it can be described as excellent presentation of a technocrat. However, it was intriguing that a man of his calibre used undesirable political rhetoric, compromising his stature of an economist and academician, unless one is set on course for further elevation as had been the case with his predecessor in the last government. How true the minister said that the budget document may not be construed as final document, thus more significance be attached to policies thereafter.
The first spell to be felt is the increase in the tariff of KESC, and that too from retrospective effect and it is said to be Rs 1.70. Presently we are paying Rs 11 per unit inclusive of all taxes, which will be increased, along with recoveries from the consumers. The budget document caused disappointment as it has miserably failed to provide any incentive for revival of economy and job opportunities. There are serious doubts expressed by an economist on fudging of numbers in the GDP growth and inflation.
We were expecting that the learned finance minister will prevail upon the government for austerity measures aimed at cutting down expenditure of the government, instead he came out with the novel idea of freezing the expenditure, which is at its peak. The budget is a bureaucrat-designed document with the IMF dictates.
The GST, being increased to 17%, may fetch Rs 120 billion instead of Rs 80 billion through imposition of VAT, to meet the increase in pay and pensions of gigantic bureaucratic surplus machinery of the Federal government an epitome of bad/poor governance, who are given enormous pay rise without monetizing their benefits received in kind. No saner person opposes increase in salaries of the government functionaries and they should be paid market-based salaries. The only austerity measure announced is a 10% decrease in pay of the regiment of ministers, which is an eyewash with hardly any impact.
A classic example of austerity in Britain, Greece and Spain may be studied as of today. Ministers are not allowed chauffer-driven fleet of vehicles. We tried some austerity at Junejo's time, but efforts were stalled, thus try again.
It is equally sad to see that instead of increasing allocation to education, it has been trimmed from 2.5 to 2% only and that too is not spent prudently. The private sector is operating schools on commercial basis. Those who can't afford private schools, will remain illiterate. If we fail to invest about 7% of the GDP in education, there is no hope for a better future. The nation needs quality education, thus it is recommended that the armed forces, who are disciplined and imparting quality education be asked to establish schools on behalf of the government to provide quality education, creativity and innovation to our youth. The armed forces have track record of managing excellent learning centre. There is no denying that education is an essential preparation for life and work in an advanced economy.
Modern economics require skilled and motivated workers, who can earn only profit from the opportunities they afford if they are equipped to respond to their demands. The best gift of Pundit Jawaharlal Nehru to India was Indian Institute of Technological Sciences. I had an opportunity in 2007 to visit the IITS and it was fascinating to see their technology farms, where research and development work was done. India's growth has been led by services sector, contributing 62.6 percent to their GDP whilst industrial and agriculture sector contributed 20 and 17.5% respectively. It employs millions of skilled people in (BPO) business process outsourcing. India has 200 recognised universities and in addition, it spends 4 billion dollars on youth for higher studies abroad. India's GDP is led by qualified professionals only.
The Germans after World War Two, dedicated themselves to education and they are the third largest economy worth 3.0 trillion dollars due to education only and most of us know that their head of state is still known as Chancellor as Germans declared the whole country as university.
We need to declare Jihad for education and this may not be left to inefficient federal or provincial ministry of education, but the sum allocated to education be given to army education corps to establish schools of excellence where even poor rural population can enter on purely merit.
Aristotle said that education is an ornament in prosperity and a refuge in adversity. I hope Dr Hafeez Sheikh may give due credence to my humble submission for the sake of posterity. I assume that a new scam in respect of CFL is in the offing, unless transparent rules for its procurement and foolproof mechanism of distribution through private sector is not planned.
There is a dire need to check the leakage of 500 billion rupees in the FBR. The FPCCI and its President have strongly advocated an end to this haemorrhage. This money should be used for debt servicing.
I am convinced that Dr Hafeez Sheikh due to paucity of time has not been able to take feedback from the market and relied heavily on a prepared document, balancing the books. I also feel that that he has not given his input or not permitted to re-cast meaningful distribution policies that may benefit the masses below the poverty level. Nothing is lost. Now that Dr Hafeez Sheikh has time, he may look into the document and give his professional input and benefit the poor masses in future policy documents as he believes that the budget is not World Cup 2010 a family affair
DAVID HEIN Family will play a role at the 2010 World Cup as Slovakia and the United States both have fathers coaching their sons, three nations have brothers in their squads and one set of half-brothers will face off for different nations.
Vladimir Weiss was already a well known in Slovakian football history, but the legacy grew in the build-up to South Africa 2010 as Weiss coached the nation to its first-ever World Cup appearance as an independent nation. Helping the coach - at 45 the youngest team boss in South Africa - was his 20-year-old son Vladimir Weiss, who plays for Manchester City.
To add to the confusion is the fact that the coach's father is also named Vladimir Weiss and played for the Czechoslovakia national team, including at the 1964 Olympics when his son was born. Weiss II, who played for Czechoslovakia at the 1990 World Cup, never feared calls of nepotism when he added Weiss III to the Slovak side for South Africa.
"I was warned because there were reports that I was doing him a favour. But everyone could see that he deserved his World Cup nomination," the coach said. The Weisses are not the only father-son combo at South Africa. US coach Bob Bradley has in his ranks his son Michael Bradley of Borussia Moenchengladbach.
"Michael is a professional player, and he understands as well as anyone how you earn respect in a group. When we're at work, that comes first," said father Bradley. "He's my dad, and he's the coach. I'm a player, and I'm his son. There's not much more to it, really," said the younger Bradley.
But fathers coaching their sons at a World Cup is not unprecedented as Italian boss Cesare Maldini had his son Paulo as captain at the 1998 World Cup. The World Cup also has seen its fair share of brothers in the past. And South Africa 2010 is no different. Kolo and Yaya Toure are playing for Ivory Coast and Paraguay have the Barreto brothers Edgar and Diego. Honduras brothers Wilson and Johny Palacios will undoubtedly have heavy hearts despite helping the nation to its first finals since 1982.
The pair's brother Edwin was kidnapped in October 2007 and held for ransom before eventually being confirmed dead in May 2009. One of the strangest family instances in World Cup history is the half-brother duo of Germany's Jerome Boateng and Kevin Prince Boateng of Ghana.
Both have the same Ghanaian father with different German mothers. In fact Kevin Prince is the great-nephew of Helmut Rahn, who scored the winning the final word. It is my firm belief that the minister knows how to put economy back on rails. It gives adequate time, he may do the needful.
There are many other measures, as I had proposed, including water reservoir on dry riverbeds thus now that the minister has time, he may interact with the private sector, trade bodies, FPCCI, KCCI and all shades to take their input so that his future policies are pristine, innovative, creative to meet the demand of today. I believe that the minister has the skill and be allowed substantial time to remove the menace of last 2 years coupled with poor governance in all shades.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Friday, May 28, 2010
Budgetary proposals
I profusely admit that I am not an economist, nor an accountant/banker, but duly qualified in maritime commerce only, thus I am writing with caution with my limited knowledge resource. The catalyst behind my writing is a proud Memon patriotic Pakistani, friend of mine who had been former President of KCCI/SITE, Chairman, SME, and shared his view being in business on forthcoming budget.
The way our homeland and its GDP nose-dived reeling to 2% GDP from 7.6% with growing burden of foreign and local debts, thus being salvaged by the IMF conditionalities. If the bankers can be at the helm of our economy instead of economist, at least we may be allowed to make our humble suggestion as we feel Dr Hafeez Sheikh from the previous set-up is most competent person and he is willing to listen to all shades for improvement of our economic health, which is certainly in a very poor shape.
I would like to quote Deputy Chancellor, David Laws (Liberal Democrat), "Public borrowing is only taxation deferred, and it would be deeply irresponsible to continue to accumulate vast debts, which have to be paid off by our children and our grand children for decades to come". How true it is, that today every Pakistani carry a debt of Rs 27,000 as reported.
The huge decline in LSM growth about 7.6% and industrial performance is not significant, except a little growth in auto sector. The high interest rate, poor governance, lack of water and power, rising law and order situation, coupled with instability for the last two years, has crippled us economically and the situation is gloomy and future is bleak. I would, strongly suggest all to read a book by Shahid-ur-Rehman named "Who owns Pakistan", a food of thought for all in particular for Dr Sheikh to devise measures to benefit the poverty ridden common man instead of elite class.
In view of continued poor governance, rampant corruption and low calibre government functionary, I wonder as to how we expect Dr Sheikh to deliver and salvage the economy. The FBR is all set to impose the VAT and emphasising on revenue growth only, rather than employment generation, as unemployment is soaring and our populace with median age of 17/21 years are running from pillar to post for bread and butter. The inflation and ever-rising commodity price, be it edible or non-edible, is biting severely those who are even employed. The irony of fate is this that the masses are paying 222 billion rupees plus 100 billion rupees in pension to government officials for the poor governance and about 400/500 billion rupees are dished out to armed forces, leaving a very insignificant amount for PSDP, health, education and welfare of masses.
Can Pakistan afford a regiment of Federal/provincial ministers and trips abroad. I, wonder if the Finance Minister will be able to restrain the government to cut down their expenditure, rather only going for imposing more taxes. The ex-banker Finance Minister pinpointed that only in the FBR 300 billion rupees are siphoned away due to flying invoices and GST returns etc. In spite of gloomy and bleak future and loss of my productive time, it is incumbent upon me to make some humble suggestions to our learned Finance Minister.
-- Focus on employment generation rather than revenue generation.
-- If the VAT is imperative, the government may exempt edible items, medicines senior citizens, education and service sector and delay it for next year.
-- Rationalise import duties in consultation with the trade bodies for domestic industries to survive.
-- Facilitate mineral exports by providing freight subsidy and hinterland connectivity.
-- Facilitation to entrepreneur and good understanding with regulators can create confidence and may help in documenting the economy.
-- Explore windows available in the region for employment of our skilled youths.
-- Low-cost housing, may create a stimulus for unemployed labours and construction industry.
-- The SME sector plays a vital role in our economy and my friend Chairman of SME Bank recommends that Rs five billion be injected, rather than privatising it.
-- Revisit of Laws, rules and regulations: It is equally important that we must bring our laws in line with civilised world and ratify international conventions, so that FDI, may reflow, investors are shy due to obsolete laws.
-- Power sector: Our growth and exports will keep on suffering, unless we embark on more hydel generation, by building Kalabagh and harnessing all resources for cheap hydel energy or coal energy, instead of relying on thermal based, IPPs or new concept of dubious RPPs. The US has already agreed to overcome our energy crisis and has pledged 1.14 billion dollar to partially finance the 19 energy initiatives mostly renewable power projects. The USTDA has already invited Pakistani delegation to the US, for baggasse-based co-generation projects at sugar mills. Power generation cost is very low as the baggasse is available at no cost.
According to USTDA report, 2000 MW of energy can be generated by 2012. Coal, wind, solar power projects may also be considered to reduce the soaring oil import billion of 11 billion dollar. Thermal-based RPPS must be discouraged as our exports can't be competitive with high utility tariffs.
-- Making of misadventure in case of distributing 30 million high quality energy savers be discouraged. It is true that Asian Development Bank is investing 40 million dollar in the energy efficient cost-effective compact fluorescent lamps and the government will invest 65 million dollar to distribute free energy savers to the masses.
It is not a bad idea as the studies revealed saving of 1100 MW at peak demand and it was practised decades back in the US and civilised world. There is no denial to this fact, but the advance countries are now popularising LEDs which has life up to one hundred thousand lighting hours and consume only one-third energy when compared to CFLs. I feel that in the allocated amount of about 125 million dollars, we may be able to assemble 30 million LEDs bulb locally, which in addition to saving energy, may create employment for 1000 people. Government and Asian Development Bank may consider a study before making a misadventure as we may respond to the latest available technology only.
Maritime employment: I have been pinpointing that world maritime industry is suffering shortage of 20,000 officers, thus window is available, so we may train our youth to fill the slot and improve our home remittances from 70 million dollars to min 200 million dollars.
Remittances: The government has taken good initiative and remittances have improved through banking channels as it has helped us largely in these hard time, but there is till room to induce overseas Pakistanis so that we may achieve a target of 10 billion dollars instead of 7.5 billion. If Bangladesh and Philippines can do so, why can't we. The US State Department describes remittances as development resources and place them in category of domestic savings and foreign private investment.
FDI: The government must address the reason of drop in FDI by 48.9%, a serious situation, thus it calls for identifying the reasons of fall and address the issues to improve flow of FDI in manufacturing sector not only in services sector. We all know that telecom sector in the past was biggest contributor of FDI, however, all efforts to be made to induce entrepreneurs in manufacturing sector.
Improve export: Pakistan can improve its exports to bridge the trade deficit, as statistics available show that Bangladesh is exporting worth 19 billion dollars, thus we can do better. TDAP has to play its due role efficiently and be given target of min 25 billion dollars and be monitored.
LNG imports: A lot of base work was done in 2005-06 to build LNG terminal at Port Qasim,, therefore it is imperative that we go full speed ahead in building the LNG terminal as natural gas contributes 49% to our energy consumption. The gas demand is expected to exceed supply by 4 bcm by the end of 2010. The gap will widen to 44 bcm by 2020. We must conclude agreements to import LNG as India has built two terminals at west coast Dahej and Hajira so is Singapore and all are operational. Let us give a kick-start to the LNG import to bridge the gap, before it is too late.
Water scarcity: Whilst India continues to build Dams on our 3 western allocated rivers under Indus Water Treaty and all our efforts have been to no avail, thus preserve whatever water we get by adopting drip irrigation, water lining of our canals and arresting the seepage. We may construct small dams on monsoon fed dry river beds to conserve water at every cost to meet the food need of growing population. Plantation of more trees to save the climate change and go for water-shed management. The government is well advised to allocate handsome amount for building of small dam for dry season, which is achievable in short period with strong will and dedication.
I personally feel and remain confident that if Dr, Sheikh is given a free-hand, he has the skill reputation of achieving in the past, so why not now. We must ponder coolly that we can't survive with present GDP growth as even Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka have fared better than us. India is doing well with 7.5% GDP, so is China set to 10% GDP growth. The option is either to give up or face the challenge bravely for the sake of posterity. The government must cut down its expenditure and invest more in PSDP, health and education with better governance to achieve our targets. It is better to light a candle then to curse the darkness.
The way our homeland and its GDP nose-dived reeling to 2% GDP from 7.6% with growing burden of foreign and local debts, thus being salvaged by the IMF conditionalities. If the bankers can be at the helm of our economy instead of economist, at least we may be allowed to make our humble suggestion as we feel Dr Hafeez Sheikh from the previous set-up is most competent person and he is willing to listen to all shades for improvement of our economic health, which is certainly in a very poor shape.
I would like to quote Deputy Chancellor, David Laws (Liberal Democrat), "Public borrowing is only taxation deferred, and it would be deeply irresponsible to continue to accumulate vast debts, which have to be paid off by our children and our grand children for decades to come". How true it is, that today every Pakistani carry a debt of Rs 27,000 as reported.
The huge decline in LSM growth about 7.6% and industrial performance is not significant, except a little growth in auto sector. The high interest rate, poor governance, lack of water and power, rising law and order situation, coupled with instability for the last two years, has crippled us economically and the situation is gloomy and future is bleak. I would, strongly suggest all to read a book by Shahid-ur-Rehman named "Who owns Pakistan", a food of thought for all in particular for Dr Sheikh to devise measures to benefit the poverty ridden common man instead of elite class.
In view of continued poor governance, rampant corruption and low calibre government functionary, I wonder as to how we expect Dr Sheikh to deliver and salvage the economy. The FBR is all set to impose the VAT and emphasising on revenue growth only, rather than employment generation, as unemployment is soaring and our populace with median age of 17/21 years are running from pillar to post for bread and butter. The inflation and ever-rising commodity price, be it edible or non-edible, is biting severely those who are even employed. The irony of fate is this that the masses are paying 222 billion rupees plus 100 billion rupees in pension to government officials for the poor governance and about 400/500 billion rupees are dished out to armed forces, leaving a very insignificant amount for PSDP, health, education and welfare of masses.
Can Pakistan afford a regiment of Federal/provincial ministers and trips abroad. I, wonder if the Finance Minister will be able to restrain the government to cut down their expenditure, rather only going for imposing more taxes. The ex-banker Finance Minister pinpointed that only in the FBR 300 billion rupees are siphoned away due to flying invoices and GST returns etc. In spite of gloomy and bleak future and loss of my productive time, it is incumbent upon me to make some humble suggestions to our learned Finance Minister.
-- Focus on employment generation rather than revenue generation.
-- If the VAT is imperative, the government may exempt edible items, medicines senior citizens, education and service sector and delay it for next year.
-- Rationalise import duties in consultation with the trade bodies for domestic industries to survive.
-- Facilitate mineral exports by providing freight subsidy and hinterland connectivity.
-- Facilitation to entrepreneur and good understanding with regulators can create confidence and may help in documenting the economy.
-- Explore windows available in the region for employment of our skilled youths.
-- Low-cost housing, may create a stimulus for unemployed labours and construction industry.
-- The SME sector plays a vital role in our economy and my friend Chairman of SME Bank recommends that Rs five billion be injected, rather than privatising it.
-- Revisit of Laws, rules and regulations: It is equally important that we must bring our laws in line with civilised world and ratify international conventions, so that FDI, may reflow, investors are shy due to obsolete laws.
-- Power sector: Our growth and exports will keep on suffering, unless we embark on more hydel generation, by building Kalabagh and harnessing all resources for cheap hydel energy or coal energy, instead of relying on thermal based, IPPs or new concept of dubious RPPs. The US has already agreed to overcome our energy crisis and has pledged 1.14 billion dollar to partially finance the 19 energy initiatives mostly renewable power projects. The USTDA has already invited Pakistani delegation to the US, for baggasse-based co-generation projects at sugar mills. Power generation cost is very low as the baggasse is available at no cost.
According to USTDA report, 2000 MW of energy can be generated by 2012. Coal, wind, solar power projects may also be considered to reduce the soaring oil import billion of 11 billion dollar. Thermal-based RPPS must be discouraged as our exports can't be competitive with high utility tariffs.
-- Making of misadventure in case of distributing 30 million high quality energy savers be discouraged. It is true that Asian Development Bank is investing 40 million dollar in the energy efficient cost-effective compact fluorescent lamps and the government will invest 65 million dollar to distribute free energy savers to the masses.
It is not a bad idea as the studies revealed saving of 1100 MW at peak demand and it was practised decades back in the US and civilised world. There is no denial to this fact, but the advance countries are now popularising LEDs which has life up to one hundred thousand lighting hours and consume only one-third energy when compared to CFLs. I feel that in the allocated amount of about 125 million dollars, we may be able to assemble 30 million LEDs bulb locally, which in addition to saving energy, may create employment for 1000 people. Government and Asian Development Bank may consider a study before making a misadventure as we may respond to the latest available technology only.
Maritime employment: I have been pinpointing that world maritime industry is suffering shortage of 20,000 officers, thus window is available, so we may train our youth to fill the slot and improve our home remittances from 70 million dollars to min 200 million dollars.
Remittances: The government has taken good initiative and remittances have improved through banking channels as it has helped us largely in these hard time, but there is till room to induce overseas Pakistanis so that we may achieve a target of 10 billion dollars instead of 7.5 billion. If Bangladesh and Philippines can do so, why can't we. The US State Department describes remittances as development resources and place them in category of domestic savings and foreign private investment.
FDI: The government must address the reason of drop in FDI by 48.9%, a serious situation, thus it calls for identifying the reasons of fall and address the issues to improve flow of FDI in manufacturing sector not only in services sector. We all know that telecom sector in the past was biggest contributor of FDI, however, all efforts to be made to induce entrepreneurs in manufacturing sector.
Improve export: Pakistan can improve its exports to bridge the trade deficit, as statistics available show that Bangladesh is exporting worth 19 billion dollars, thus we can do better. TDAP has to play its due role efficiently and be given target of min 25 billion dollars and be monitored.
LNG imports: A lot of base work was done in 2005-06 to build LNG terminal at Port Qasim,, therefore it is imperative that we go full speed ahead in building the LNG terminal as natural gas contributes 49% to our energy consumption. The gas demand is expected to exceed supply by 4 bcm by the end of 2010. The gap will widen to 44 bcm by 2020. We must conclude agreements to import LNG as India has built two terminals at west coast Dahej and Hajira so is Singapore and all are operational. Let us give a kick-start to the LNG import to bridge the gap, before it is too late.
Water scarcity: Whilst India continues to build Dams on our 3 western allocated rivers under Indus Water Treaty and all our efforts have been to no avail, thus preserve whatever water we get by adopting drip irrigation, water lining of our canals and arresting the seepage. We may construct small dams on monsoon fed dry river beds to conserve water at every cost to meet the food need of growing population. Plantation of more trees to save the climate change and go for water-shed management. The government is well advised to allocate handsome amount for building of small dam for dry season, which is achievable in short period with strong will and dedication.
I personally feel and remain confident that if Dr, Sheikh is given a free-hand, he has the skill reputation of achieving in the past, so why not now. We must ponder coolly that we can't survive with present GDP growth as even Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka have fared better than us. India is doing well with 7.5% GDP, so is China set to 10% GDP growth. The option is either to give up or face the challenge bravely for the sake of posterity. The government must cut down its expenditure and invest more in PSDP, health and education with better governance to achieve our targets. It is better to light a candle then to curse the darkness.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Climate change and water scarcity
The temperatures in Pakistan broke all records in March 2010 and it support the argument that climate is changing due to global warming. Pakistan faced with poor governance is equally facing reduced river flows on its allocated three western rivers due to building of Hydro Electric Dams across the border, thus reduced power generation and scarcity of water for crops in Pakistan and massive load shedding.
It was Saturday the 3rd April, 2010 at Avari Tower, when Indian High Commissioner H.E. Sharat Sabharwal was invited as a Chief Guest along-with his team by Karachi Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank to deliberate on Indus water treaty, which is considered as inherent conflict between the two neighbours, due to building of Baglihar Dam followed by Kishanganga, Sawalkot, Pakuldul, Bursar, Dal Huste, Gyspa and many more on the drawing boards. Pakistan had expressed its reservation on these dams within the mechanism provided to resolve disputes in Indus water treaty and our media has rightly educated masses ventilating views from both sides of divide.
The Honourable High Commissioner who is soft and pleasant spoke with the help of slides, justifying position of his Government on the issue, like many liberal enlightened Indian Analyst of repute discarding genuine grievances and vulnerability of Pakistan as reported in media. India being upper riparian has all the options available to their discretion. After the deliberation there was interactive Q&A session and very searching questions were asked by Pakistani intellectuals, which were responded diplomatically with the typical mind set on the issue barring technical questions, which the High Commissioner avoided.
I, queried about the environmental pollution being caused by India due to burning of coal and fossil fuels as I reminded him that prior to Copenhagen a environment conference was held at Khatmandu where serious concerns were raised by Scientist that after US, India and China are the biggest polluters and noxious clouds are hovering on Tibetan plateau and catchments areas of our rivers, so is the issue of melting glaciers and changing weather pattern in South East Asia and rising sea temperatures.
I reminded him that Maldive is sinking, thus it is incumbent upon India to arrest the emissions and compensate the masses suffering due to massive industrialisation in India, and pumping of untreated sewerage in Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal disturbing the ecological balance and marine life. The answer was sweet, soft and brief that economic developments has a cost, so bear it.
A very interesting article captioned "War or peace on Indus" by John Briscoe is a must read for those who wish to educate themselves on Indus water treaty. The writer has made independent analysis of the issue and has definitely presented Pakistan's case much better than our Government could. The writer has proposed conflict resolution and I feel that Indian and Pakistani both give due weight-age to the solution offered, enable resolve the issue based on dictum 'Aman Ki Asha'.
The water issue is a matter of life and death due to increasing population of Pakistan said to be 2.6% of GDP, thus more water will be needed. The major fear is global warming thus both countries must jointly work on conservation arresting seepage and management of water resources. We may jointly study the resolution of disputes on the pattern of Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay as suggested by John in his write up, that India is driving the train, thus change may start in India.
The world masses pinned much of their hope on Copenhagen Summit after failure of signing and implementation of Koyoto protocol in 1997 but the two weeks of talks meant for "make and break of the planet, resulted in compromise political consensus that set no target for cutting emissions, however now we are looking forward for post consultative rounds one year from now in Mexcico where it is hoped that some targets may be fixed to save the planet and posterity both. I would strongly recommend that India and Pakistan must resolve the issues for the benefit of mankind on both sides of the divide. As a maritime professional, I can proudly acclaim that Shipping Industry, which moves 90% of World trade, yet accounts for just 2.7% total global CO2 emissions. It is the shore based people who as per IMO statistics are big polluters causing 92% of Marine pollution by pumping untreated sewerage into sea.
Let India and Pakistan may join hands in combating climate change, resolving issues on table related to Indus water treaty and respecting the rights of lower riparian for the sake of posterity and peace but peace only on all issues, as masses on both ends of divide are poverty stricken and can't afford the luxury of future conflicts. Let's learn to live as good neighbours and it will only be possible with mass contact.
The High Commissioner was feted along with his better half and his team to a sumptuous dinner at Karachi Boat Club on Sunday the 4th by Pakistan/India citizen forum and I must admit that he and his team are neither hawkish nor dove but remained firm on their policy without any aggressive posture. The High Commissioner has promised to visit Karachi in June again. I sincerely hope that ice may melt and India may release some water in Eastern rivers at least for drinking purposes to give a kick start towards building confidence.
It was Saturday the 3rd April, 2010 at Avari Tower, when Indian High Commissioner H.E. Sharat Sabharwal was invited as a Chief Guest along-with his team by Karachi Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank to deliberate on Indus water treaty, which is considered as inherent conflict between the two neighbours, due to building of Baglihar Dam followed by Kishanganga, Sawalkot, Pakuldul, Bursar, Dal Huste, Gyspa and many more on the drawing boards. Pakistan had expressed its reservation on these dams within the mechanism provided to resolve disputes in Indus water treaty and our media has rightly educated masses ventilating views from both sides of divide.
The Honourable High Commissioner who is soft and pleasant spoke with the help of slides, justifying position of his Government on the issue, like many liberal enlightened Indian Analyst of repute discarding genuine grievances and vulnerability of Pakistan as reported in media. India being upper riparian has all the options available to their discretion. After the deliberation there was interactive Q&A session and very searching questions were asked by Pakistani intellectuals, which were responded diplomatically with the typical mind set on the issue barring technical questions, which the High Commissioner avoided.
I, queried about the environmental pollution being caused by India due to burning of coal and fossil fuels as I reminded him that prior to Copenhagen a environment conference was held at Khatmandu where serious concerns were raised by Scientist that after US, India and China are the biggest polluters and noxious clouds are hovering on Tibetan plateau and catchments areas of our rivers, so is the issue of melting glaciers and changing weather pattern in South East Asia and rising sea temperatures.
I reminded him that Maldive is sinking, thus it is incumbent upon India to arrest the emissions and compensate the masses suffering due to massive industrialisation in India, and pumping of untreated sewerage in Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal disturbing the ecological balance and marine life. The answer was sweet, soft and brief that economic developments has a cost, so bear it.
A very interesting article captioned "War or peace on Indus" by John Briscoe is a must read for those who wish to educate themselves on Indus water treaty. The writer has made independent analysis of the issue and has definitely presented Pakistan's case much better than our Government could. The writer has proposed conflict resolution and I feel that Indian and Pakistani both give due weight-age to the solution offered, enable resolve the issue based on dictum 'Aman Ki Asha'.
The water issue is a matter of life and death due to increasing population of Pakistan said to be 2.6% of GDP, thus more water will be needed. The major fear is global warming thus both countries must jointly work on conservation arresting seepage and management of water resources. We may jointly study the resolution of disputes on the pattern of Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay as suggested by John in his write up, that India is driving the train, thus change may start in India.
The world masses pinned much of their hope on Copenhagen Summit after failure of signing and implementation of Koyoto protocol in 1997 but the two weeks of talks meant for "make and break of the planet, resulted in compromise political consensus that set no target for cutting emissions, however now we are looking forward for post consultative rounds one year from now in Mexcico where it is hoped that some targets may be fixed to save the planet and posterity both. I would strongly recommend that India and Pakistan must resolve the issues for the benefit of mankind on both sides of the divide. As a maritime professional, I can proudly acclaim that Shipping Industry, which moves 90% of World trade, yet accounts for just 2.7% total global CO2 emissions. It is the shore based people who as per IMO statistics are big polluters causing 92% of Marine pollution by pumping untreated sewerage into sea.
Let India and Pakistan may join hands in combating climate change, resolving issues on table related to Indus water treaty and respecting the rights of lower riparian for the sake of posterity and peace but peace only on all issues, as masses on both ends of divide are poverty stricken and can't afford the luxury of future conflicts. Let's learn to live as good neighbours and it will only be possible with mass contact.
The High Commissioner was feted along with his better half and his team to a sumptuous dinner at Karachi Boat Club on Sunday the 4th by Pakistan/India citizen forum and I must admit that he and his team are neither hawkish nor dove but remained firm on their policy without any aggressive posture. The High Commissioner has promised to visit Karachi in June again. I sincerely hope that ice may melt and India may release some water in Eastern rivers at least for drinking purposes to give a kick start towards building confidence.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
The great parliamentary comedy of the year
I recall BBC 4 Radio Broad-casting parliamentary jokes, but with grace. Due to lack of adequate academics, some of our legislators seldom talk in Parliament, but most of the people vocalise themselves in yelling and screaming, if you speak loudest, you may give the best rips to other and let the opponent feel inferior.
It is interesting to read L. Vencent Poupard "The humour to be found when watching British parliament" and TV show "Yes Minister" etc, but no one, ever stoops down to lowest pedestal or commits academic frauds. Democracy is said to be best form of government, although it is not a perfect system of Governance, as the case in Pakistan where, unfortunately, illiterate masses, without checking the credentials of the leaders vote for them on the basis of creed, caste or be it ethnic affiliation or sympathy factor.
The poor results of bad governance for the last 2 years are obvious, when statistics are benchmarked. It sends shock waves when our elected leaders are apprehended for fraudulent practices, proving their academies, but the recent case of the Chairman of National Assembly Committee of Sports in the Supreme Court was a hilarious comedy, especially the Q&A. If these are our legislators and their knowledge base so dismal, how we expect them to legislate the laws.
What a shame and all Pakistanis hang their head in shame as one after other legislator is send from hall of fame to hall of shame, thanks to the independent judiciary. Whilst legislators comical comments can be discounted, but it has put me on browsing for hours to find a Tafseer written by Hazrat Musa (Mosses), as this was a startling revelation from a legislator who is to said to be Master's in Theology (Islamiat), a serious matter worth investigating and can't be simply ignored, but never heard before, thus be investigated by scholars and the learned legislator may be asked to deliberate further on it.
We, in Pakistan must ponder as to how to operate the democracy in a country where constituents are unable to check credentials, thus we have to evolve a foolproof system by making due amendments in our Constitution and democratic framework to suit our local condition where illiteracy is rampant and very nominal sum of GDP is reserved for education and health.
I believe that we must at least revert to under-graduate minimum from a recognised university and discard equivalency's, being my humble submission. I firmly believe that parliamentary democracy of West Minster style is not suited to us, unless duly amended with checks and balances on electing our legislators, who should be able to at least comprehended the summaries and take legal/professional consultants on board, when framing laws or approving any act of parliament.
All these problem boils down to poor state of education in our country, even terrorism and many other ills. Education, and especially liberal education, is what makes civil society possible that means it has an importance even greater than its contribution to economic success, which, alas, is all that politician seem to think it is for. To understand civilising and ethical role of liberal, education we need to escape from narrow definition of morality as conceived by us and let us return to more inclusive classical conception of "Ethics".
The ancient Greeks thought differently, for them whole of life is an ethical matter and ones effect on other flow from one's overall character, as Socrates dictum - and it can only be considered if it is informed. The liberal education means literature, history and appreciation of arts, and give them equal weigh with scientific and practical subjects.
Our legislators of today and tomorrow and all others must admit that there is no denying that education is an essential preparation for life and work in today's advanced economy. Modern economics require skilled and motivated leaders and workers both, who may only profit from opportunities they afford, if they are equipped to respond to their demands.
So much now is received wisdom. Aristotle said that we educate ourselves so that we can make noble use of our leisure, this is a view directly opposed to the contemporary policy that we educate ourselves to get a job in our country and abroad.
The key is to distinguish education from training, to recognise that people require both and to be unabashed, about what is involved in the latter. Heraclitus remarked that learning is only a means to an end, which is understanding and understanding is the ultimate value in education, education etymologically means "leading out" or "bringing out", an idea which owes itself to an improbable but long influential theory put forward by Plato.
He believed that we have pre existing immortal souls, which knew all things in their disembodied state, but which we forget at birth. In Plato's theory, learning is thus remembering, schooling is the activity of bringing out what is immemorially lodged in our minds.
The theory was modified in more sensible directions by later thinkers, who saw education as the evocation of talents and capabilities implicit in the individual, rather than innate knowledge. There is no denying of the fact that college and university unions were nursery for development of political skills not rowdyism, which is practiced by unions.
The university unions exposed the talents to art and literary meetings and listening to professionals and politicians in the auditorium, thus giving a food of thought. It is incumbent on independent election commission to check the credentials of all candidates as masses due to rampant illiteracy and other factors, can't check the credentials.
It is also humbly suggested that all legislators once elected must attend mandatory "academy of politics" for 6 months where they may be exposed to law, international conventions, international relations and all pre-requisites of Constitution.
The academy must also groom them about their privileges and how to act in parliament on various issues, so that legislators are at least trained and groomed to some extent to avoid further comedies.
We respect our legislators, who have been voted by their constituents and it makes us sad, when they can't perform or commit fraudulent practices, although they are few, but we must reform, so that such events are not reported for the sake of our parliaments reputation, which is sacred to all constituents. I quote Geoffrey Moss "that it is better to light a candle then to curse the darkness."
Until the legislator met nemesis in the courtroom, he was firebrand vocalist. His downfall gave me to write his obituary. The searching question is can the court move, as legislator demands verification of degrees of all legislators. I fully subscribe to him and endorse his views and noble demand or all else, all legislators voluntarily submit verification of their degrees right from the top for the sake of cleansing the system and restoring image.
It is interesting to read L. Vencent Poupard "The humour to be found when watching British parliament" and TV show "Yes Minister" etc, but no one, ever stoops down to lowest pedestal or commits academic frauds. Democracy is said to be best form of government, although it is not a perfect system of Governance, as the case in Pakistan where, unfortunately, illiterate masses, without checking the credentials of the leaders vote for them on the basis of creed, caste or be it ethnic affiliation or sympathy factor.
The poor results of bad governance for the last 2 years are obvious, when statistics are benchmarked. It sends shock waves when our elected leaders are apprehended for fraudulent practices, proving their academies, but the recent case of the Chairman of National Assembly Committee of Sports in the Supreme Court was a hilarious comedy, especially the Q&A. If these are our legislators and their knowledge base so dismal, how we expect them to legislate the laws.
What a shame and all Pakistanis hang their head in shame as one after other legislator is send from hall of fame to hall of shame, thanks to the independent judiciary. Whilst legislators comical comments can be discounted, but it has put me on browsing for hours to find a Tafseer written by Hazrat Musa (Mosses), as this was a startling revelation from a legislator who is to said to be Master's in Theology (Islamiat), a serious matter worth investigating and can't be simply ignored, but never heard before, thus be investigated by scholars and the learned legislator may be asked to deliberate further on it.
We, in Pakistan must ponder as to how to operate the democracy in a country where constituents are unable to check credentials, thus we have to evolve a foolproof system by making due amendments in our Constitution and democratic framework to suit our local condition where illiteracy is rampant and very nominal sum of GDP is reserved for education and health.
I believe that we must at least revert to under-graduate minimum from a recognised university and discard equivalency's, being my humble submission. I firmly believe that parliamentary democracy of West Minster style is not suited to us, unless duly amended with checks and balances on electing our legislators, who should be able to at least comprehended the summaries and take legal/professional consultants on board, when framing laws or approving any act of parliament.
All these problem boils down to poor state of education in our country, even terrorism and many other ills. Education, and especially liberal education, is what makes civil society possible that means it has an importance even greater than its contribution to economic success, which, alas, is all that politician seem to think it is for. To understand civilising and ethical role of liberal, education we need to escape from narrow definition of morality as conceived by us and let us return to more inclusive classical conception of "Ethics".
The ancient Greeks thought differently, for them whole of life is an ethical matter and ones effect on other flow from one's overall character, as Socrates dictum - and it can only be considered if it is informed. The liberal education means literature, history and appreciation of arts, and give them equal weigh with scientific and practical subjects.
Our legislators of today and tomorrow and all others must admit that there is no denying that education is an essential preparation for life and work in today's advanced economy. Modern economics require skilled and motivated leaders and workers both, who may only profit from opportunities they afford, if they are equipped to respond to their demands.
So much now is received wisdom. Aristotle said that we educate ourselves so that we can make noble use of our leisure, this is a view directly opposed to the contemporary policy that we educate ourselves to get a job in our country and abroad.
The key is to distinguish education from training, to recognise that people require both and to be unabashed, about what is involved in the latter. Heraclitus remarked that learning is only a means to an end, which is understanding and understanding is the ultimate value in education, education etymologically means "leading out" or "bringing out", an idea which owes itself to an improbable but long influential theory put forward by Plato.
He believed that we have pre existing immortal souls, which knew all things in their disembodied state, but which we forget at birth. In Plato's theory, learning is thus remembering, schooling is the activity of bringing out what is immemorially lodged in our minds.
The theory was modified in more sensible directions by later thinkers, who saw education as the evocation of talents and capabilities implicit in the individual, rather than innate knowledge. There is no denying of the fact that college and university unions were nursery for development of political skills not rowdyism, which is practiced by unions.
The university unions exposed the talents to art and literary meetings and listening to professionals and politicians in the auditorium, thus giving a food of thought. It is incumbent on independent election commission to check the credentials of all candidates as masses due to rampant illiteracy and other factors, can't check the credentials.
It is also humbly suggested that all legislators once elected must attend mandatory "academy of politics" for 6 months where they may be exposed to law, international conventions, international relations and all pre-requisites of Constitution.
The academy must also groom them about their privileges and how to act in parliament on various issues, so that legislators are at least trained and groomed to some extent to avoid further comedies.
We respect our legislators, who have been voted by their constituents and it makes us sad, when they can't perform or commit fraudulent practices, although they are few, but we must reform, so that such events are not reported for the sake of our parliaments reputation, which is sacred to all constituents. I quote Geoffrey Moss "that it is better to light a candle then to curse the darkness."
Until the legislator met nemesis in the courtroom, he was firebrand vocalist. His downfall gave me to write his obituary. The searching question is can the court move, as legislator demands verification of degrees of all legislators. I fully subscribe to him and endorse his views and noble demand or all else, all legislators voluntarily submit verification of their degrees right from the top for the sake of cleansing the system and restoring image.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Tropical revolving storms
The memory is an organ of perception in the past, much as the eyes and other senses are organs of perception in the present. The casual links between originating experiences and present memories form a bridge to past time. When I recall the tropical revolving storm, which hit the then East Pakistan in 1960, followed by political storm of 1970/71, which resulted in loss of one wing, but the origin is dated back to prior 1970.
Our beloved homeland is in turbulence again since 2007, but now a political revolving storm is heading towards the hills. The reason could be any, be it betrayal, poor governance, spiralling high prices, depreciation of rupees or as said to be conspiracy. I am not a political scientist, but as a maritime professional having weathered many storms at sea, can safely say that the aftermath of such storms on the ground causes significant damage.
Pakistan since inception has a history of weathering such storms, hope at present, we weather it without serious devastation. I, find it prudent to deliberate on the 1960 cyclone which created history in the maritime world, thus restraining myself to metrological and maritime wonders of the history only being eye witness to 60/70's both.
I, recall when in October1960, Chittagong then East Pakistan was hit by cyclone it had put a ship "Clan Alpine" of 7168 gross tonnage on the palm trees ashore. It is unbelievable, but true to the core, thus such storms are not to be taken lightly in one's life. A tropical cyclone is a storm system characterised by a large low-pressure centre and numerous thunderstorms that produce strong winds and heavy rains.
Tropical cyclones feed on heat released when moist air rises, resulting in condensation of water vapour contained in the moist air. They are fuelled by different mechanism as nor'easters. They originate in doldrums near the equator about 10 degree away from it. The term tropical refers to both the geographic origin of these systems, which form at most exclusively in tropical region of the globe and their formation in tropical air masses.
In, northern hemisphere as our case be it is clockwise rotation, whilst in the South it is anti-clockwise. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical revolving storm in our region is known as cyclone, Hurricane in Atlantic, Typhoon in Pacific and Willie Willie in Australia.
Whilst cyclone can produce powerful winds and torrential rains they also produce high waves (Tidal bore) and damaging storm surge as well as Tornadoes. They develop over large bodies of warm water, and loose their strength overland. The effect on human population could be devastating, but it relieves from drought conditions.
Cyclones carry heat and energy away from tropics and transport it towards temperate latitudes, which makes them an important part of the global atmospheric circulation mechanism. As a result tropical cyclones help to maintain equilibrium in the earth's troposphere and to maintain relatively stable and warm temperature world-wide.
Present drought in the country is attributed to ElNino effect in Pacific/Bay of Bengal which resulted in 34% less rains, thus expected failure of crops this year. Many tropical cyclones develop, when the atmospheric conditions around a weak disturbance in the atmosphere are favourable. The eye of the storm is normally 150 km and barometric pressure of 960 millibars.
"Clan Alpine" of 7168 gross tonnage and length of 424 feet sailed on 16th September 1960 from the Mersey for Chittagong East Pakistan via Glasgow, the Suez canal etc and arrived Chittagong at 01:30 hours on 31st October, and anchored to wait for available berth at docks.
The Radio Officer reported to Master through Marconi Gram that a Cyclone was heading towards Chittagong and by 18:35 hours there were reports that the wind is exceeding force 12 on Beaufort scale. The engines of Clan Alpine were full speed ahead to stem to cyclone, but she was dragged in the Karnaphuli River 65 km/hours with a 35 feet (11 m) surge that had struck the area. The wind peaked at 250 km/hr and at 18:50 hours, the eye of the storm passed over the ship and at 19:25 hours a bump was felt and it was reported that ship has run aground in fields.
The engines were stopped, but Master requested to re-start the engines as the ship was apparently near the rocks, however the rocks were quickly revealed to be the top of Palm tress, where the vessel was first placed by surge, subsequently kissing the ground, when surge was over.
One can only believe who may have seen the ship sitting upright in the fields of Chittagong City, away from the channel. It is also on record that the then President Ayub Khan flew on helicopter to see and believe the might of a cyclone.
The people of Chittagong showered praise on Master and the crew, all British men by honouring them, the membership of Chittagong Club which enabled the crew to live in Scenic Club Bungalows as a break from staying abroad. Another remarkable measure was construction of a road to ferry the cargo of 2400 tons from the ship. I, recall that even Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Phillip visited the ship, when she was stranded to see the might of cyclone/sea and that of God, as it was unique, so many people from the world visited the ship, after the cyclone.
The ship was declared constructive total loss, thus was scrapped in 1961. It was a miracle that despite riding a surge of 11 meter the 7000 toner setting firstly on trees well inside the field, away from harbour and finally resting upright without loss of life is virtually unbelievable, but it did happen. I "THOREAU men talk of Bible because there is no miracle in their lives cease to gnaw the crust. There is a ripe fruit over your head."
I, weathered storms in Atlantic and Bay of Bengal, but never of that intensity, which can fly the 7000 ton ship by Surge, ashore beyond Chittagong in the fields. I, also had privilege of meeting the Master of the ship, later who became a firm believer of God, despite many life lost in Chittagong, not a single soul lost life being on ship.
The moral of this write up is to seek mercy from God, thus may fear such awesome tropical / political revolving storms, which may cause surge to fly any object, how might be it. I, remind people to read E.M. Foster, Mark Twain and legendary Antenor, whose betrayal / treachery delivered troy to Greeks. We must learn from the history and be prepared to safe guard our beloved homeland, from storms, drought and political storms too..
Our beloved homeland is in turbulence again since 2007, but now a political revolving storm is heading towards the hills. The reason could be any, be it betrayal, poor governance, spiralling high prices, depreciation of rupees or as said to be conspiracy. I am not a political scientist, but as a maritime professional having weathered many storms at sea, can safely say that the aftermath of such storms on the ground causes significant damage.
Pakistan since inception has a history of weathering such storms, hope at present, we weather it without serious devastation. I, find it prudent to deliberate on the 1960 cyclone which created history in the maritime world, thus restraining myself to metrological and maritime wonders of the history only being eye witness to 60/70's both.
I, recall when in October1960, Chittagong then East Pakistan was hit by cyclone it had put a ship "Clan Alpine" of 7168 gross tonnage on the palm trees ashore. It is unbelievable, but true to the core, thus such storms are not to be taken lightly in one's life. A tropical cyclone is a storm system characterised by a large low-pressure centre and numerous thunderstorms that produce strong winds and heavy rains.
Tropical cyclones feed on heat released when moist air rises, resulting in condensation of water vapour contained in the moist air. They are fuelled by different mechanism as nor'easters. They originate in doldrums near the equator about 10 degree away from it. The term tropical refers to both the geographic origin of these systems, which form at most exclusively in tropical region of the globe and their formation in tropical air masses.
In, northern hemisphere as our case be it is clockwise rotation, whilst in the South it is anti-clockwise. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical revolving storm in our region is known as cyclone, Hurricane in Atlantic, Typhoon in Pacific and Willie Willie in Australia.
Whilst cyclone can produce powerful winds and torrential rains they also produce high waves (Tidal bore) and damaging storm surge as well as Tornadoes. They develop over large bodies of warm water, and loose their strength overland. The effect on human population could be devastating, but it relieves from drought conditions.
Cyclones carry heat and energy away from tropics and transport it towards temperate latitudes, which makes them an important part of the global atmospheric circulation mechanism. As a result tropical cyclones help to maintain equilibrium in the earth's troposphere and to maintain relatively stable and warm temperature world-wide.
Present drought in the country is attributed to ElNino effect in Pacific/Bay of Bengal which resulted in 34% less rains, thus expected failure of crops this year. Many tropical cyclones develop, when the atmospheric conditions around a weak disturbance in the atmosphere are favourable. The eye of the storm is normally 150 km and barometric pressure of 960 millibars.
"Clan Alpine" of 7168 gross tonnage and length of 424 feet sailed on 16th September 1960 from the Mersey for Chittagong East Pakistan via Glasgow, the Suez canal etc and arrived Chittagong at 01:30 hours on 31st October, and anchored to wait for available berth at docks.
The Radio Officer reported to Master through Marconi Gram that a Cyclone was heading towards Chittagong and by 18:35 hours there were reports that the wind is exceeding force 12 on Beaufort scale. The engines of Clan Alpine were full speed ahead to stem to cyclone, but she was dragged in the Karnaphuli River 65 km/hours with a 35 feet (11 m) surge that had struck the area. The wind peaked at 250 km/hr and at 18:50 hours, the eye of the storm passed over the ship and at 19:25 hours a bump was felt and it was reported that ship has run aground in fields.
The engines were stopped, but Master requested to re-start the engines as the ship was apparently near the rocks, however the rocks were quickly revealed to be the top of Palm tress, where the vessel was first placed by surge, subsequently kissing the ground, when surge was over.
One can only believe who may have seen the ship sitting upright in the fields of Chittagong City, away from the channel. It is also on record that the then President Ayub Khan flew on helicopter to see and believe the might of a cyclone.
The people of Chittagong showered praise on Master and the crew, all British men by honouring them, the membership of Chittagong Club which enabled the crew to live in Scenic Club Bungalows as a break from staying abroad. Another remarkable measure was construction of a road to ferry the cargo of 2400 tons from the ship. I, recall that even Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Phillip visited the ship, when she was stranded to see the might of cyclone/sea and that of God, as it was unique, so many people from the world visited the ship, after the cyclone.
The ship was declared constructive total loss, thus was scrapped in 1961. It was a miracle that despite riding a surge of 11 meter the 7000 toner setting firstly on trees well inside the field, away from harbour and finally resting upright without loss of life is virtually unbelievable, but it did happen. I "THOREAU men talk of Bible because there is no miracle in their lives cease to gnaw the crust. There is a ripe fruit over your head."
I, weathered storms in Atlantic and Bay of Bengal, but never of that intensity, which can fly the 7000 ton ship by Surge, ashore beyond Chittagong in the fields. I, also had privilege of meeting the Master of the ship, later who became a firm believer of God, despite many life lost in Chittagong, not a single soul lost life being on ship.
The moral of this write up is to seek mercy from God, thus may fear such awesome tropical / political revolving storms, which may cause surge to fly any object, how might be it. I, remind people to read E.M. Foster, Mark Twain and legendary Antenor, whose betrayal / treachery delivered troy to Greeks. We must learn from the history and be prepared to safe guard our beloved homeland, from storms, drought and political storms too..
Monday, November 9, 2009
Karachi, the next containerised cargo hub by 2012
In April this year, I wrote about the need for a Deep Water Port Act to guide Pakistan in the development of our maritime industry, it was generally welcomed but I also welcomed my critics with open heart and mind. The global economic situation in April 2009 was uncertain. It was the same for Pakistan. Trade and container volumes were lower compared to previous year.
Many were uncertain about the future and uncertain about change. In my article in April, I was of the opinion that it was time to build and for KPT to build the deep sea port so that Pakistan will be ready when the recession is over. Since then, there are signs of a recovery.
Pakistan's ports have fared relatively well in the last six months and the good times are coming, as recession is receding and recovery is evident, with growth in China/India, so is the case with South Asia. It has been said that change makes enemies of all who prospered under the old regime and many others who are not prepared to change. This holds true in terms of new economic development.
The Pakistan Deep Water Container Port (PDWCP) has been carefully planned for years and finally came to fruition in 2007, where the Karachi Port Trust (KPT) awarded the project to build and operate Phase I for a term of 25 years. I can say that this is one aspect where change is coming to Pakistan.
PDWCP is under construction by the KPT and is expected to be operational by 2012. KPT is currently carrying out the dredging and reclamation works and will construct the marine protection works and the quay wall. The concessionaire will construct the quay deck with the required civil works and provide the equipment. The total investment by the KPT and the concessionaire will be approximately US $1 billion, not 650 million as reported in the print media. The pace of capital dredging of 16% be accelerated to 30% to meet the dates.
This project will bring about a dramatic change in the logistics and port industry in the region and in Pakistan never seen before. The terminals will be equipped with the latest state-of-the-art facilities, first available in the West Indian and Arabian Sea region. The PDWCP, which will have drafts of up to 18 meters, will serve as a hub for the region, rivalling that of Dubai and JNPT in Mumbai.
It will be able to handle the world's largest container ships, some of which are still under construction. PDWCP will also enhance the ability of our ports to handle cargo in the regions. PDWCP will elevate Pakistan as a credible player to compete in the transshipment market, which to-date is constrained by infrastructure capabilities. All this will transform Pakistan to a maritime hub for the region.
The hub and spoke distribution paradigm has been largely accepted in the freight, transport and communications industries as the standard economic geography for numerous reasons, such as simplification of operations, lowering costs and reducing the number of routes, to name only a few advantages.
This concept has been successfully applied by the marine freight industry, which in any case holds the lion's share in the global logistics sector. Selected ports around the world act as hubs and nearby smaller ports rely on these hubs for their feeder cargo. Doing so creates a win-win situation for all parties involved and results in lower service costs to the end user.
For a sea port to be able to act as a cargo hub it must possess several physical and geographic advantages. To name just a few, such a port must have the depth required for large vessels to safely navigate unobstructed. It must be on or in close proximity to major shipping routes for shipping lines to be able to keep running costs and travel times low. But most importantly, it must have an identifiable market to whose needs it can cater and thus make economic sense of its existence.
Karachi is ideally situated near the shipping routes between the Far East and Europe. It is also in close proximity to the Middle East. Being a naturally enclosed harbour helps lower possible risk of damage to flotilla and facilities at Karachi, in turn reducing insurance costs. These factors together with others that I will mention herein below, lend economic sense for Karachi to become a regional cargo hub.
Looking at another perspective, the ports of Pakistan have always served as a gateway to the flow of goods to the Central Asian Republics (CARs), such as Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and beyond. Completion of the PDWCP will increase trade between the CARs with the rest of the world. The CARs have a population of approximately 80 million living in a landlocked territory and development of the national trade corridor with the help of World Bank to reduce the delivery time.
The economies of scale that can be reaped as a result of having larger vessels call at a port in Pakistan will no doubt eventually reflect positively on the entire industrial sector within the country. Lower freight cost and faster deliveries have been the pending needs of not only our textile industry but our entire manufacturing sector.
Faster turnaround times shall also mean that the industrial concerns will need to improve their logistics planning and employ modern and technologically advanced methods of supply chain management to remain competitive globally. This means that the project will only bring about major benefits to the people of Pakistan. When fully operational, Phase I of the PDWCP is expected to create jobs for 1,500 people within the terminal, not to mention the jobs created in the support industries.
Beyond the confines of the terminal, there will be demand for truck drivers, truck attendants, stevedores and other supporting job roles. It will provide income to many Pakistani families. Investing in the best infrastructure will also lead to the transfer of skills and technology to Pakistanis, who will be involved in the marketing and operations of the container terminals.
This will, in turn, also perpetually increase the government's revenues through taxes and other levies. It is imperative that educated Pakistanis be induced into the logistics sector and be imparted training. When fully operational, the PDWCP will add handling capacity of over 3 million teus (twenty-foot equivalent boxes) to the existing facilities in Pakistan. This can only mean more competition and resulting efficiency to the entire trade.
Such competition will eventually have a trickledown effect, in increasing the welfare of the people of Pakistan. We must not be afraid of competition by putting up obstacles to investment through our words and actions and provide excuses for investors to put their money elsewhere.
Containerisation has been the dominant method of cargo transportation for the last three decades and shall continue to be so for the foreseeable future. When it was first introduced in the USA in 1955, this new concept met some stiff resistance. The same seems true for this project in Pakistan today, however, as good economic sense prevailed then in the USA so it will now in Pakistan.
A decision to spend US $1 billion on this mega project has been arrived at after considerable planning and study. At a time when many of the other mega projects, such as large dams and real estate development, have been shelved indefinitely due to financial constraints, etc, it is of critical importance for the nation to push this port infrastructure project to completion.
There are many who fear change. Some fear change for change itself. Some fear change will destroy their existing personal and economic interest. Investment decisions like this, not only brings hope but also tangible benefits to the nation and our people. We should be ready and prepared, prepared to participate and contribute. It must be the pride of all patriotic Pakistanis that we possess the most advanced logistics infrastructure in the region.
It also demonstrates to the world that foreign investors have confidence in the long term development of Pakistan. We must support our nation in its economic development and we must work hard to maintain the confidence of investors, whose support we need. As the late President John F Kennedy said, "Think not what your country can do for you, think what you can do for your country."
All Pakistanis must contribute positively in ways, big or small, to ensuring the success of the project. The successful completion shall also help in drawing foreign investment to the country at a time when every bit of investment helps. Therefore, any suggestions to the contrary will reflect badly on investor confidence and affect negatively on Pakistan's ability to further attract foreign investment for other projects of national importance.
Delay in the completion of this project will also afford reason to other neighbouring countries to speed up their own similar projects resulting in loss of revenue and market which could otherwise have been captured by Pakistan. Pakistan is poised to become the first in the South Asia region to welcome the largest container ships. I look forward to that day.
More important, I look forward to witness the welfare benefits that it will bring to our 'am admi', the common man on the streets, who needs roti, kapra and makan. Let us strive and ensure that we do not miss the window today, as had been the case in the past when we missed it in 70's, resulting in development hubs in the Gulf.
I am confident that the ministry of ports and shipping and Karachi port must have made a study on logistics and transportation for the new port, as logistics and transportation are key factors for improved quality of life and environment. As the Karachi Port expands, airport traffic grows, rail traffic intensifies, congestion is likely to reach alarming levels. I quote the example of Port of Houston, Haris County and the State of Texas, identified well before.
Congestion and transportation issues are key threats to economic growth, together with safety and security. We have to plan better entry/exit routes for the new port and must fund such projects with the help of the Karachi Port and Sindh Government. The blue print of the Port of Houston may be taken as a guide as they had planned before Houston grew into an international logistic hub. Karachi may be transformed into a regional hub with the development of a deepwater Port.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Ship owing and ship management: a regional perspective
Our generation was witness to the peak of ship owing in the 60's, with eleven ship-owners, ie ten in private sector and one in public sector providing employment to educated and skilled seafarers. There was a time, prior to nationalisation, that ship-owner's had a total of 79 ships under Pakistan's flag.
The 1973 nationalisation and breaking of our eastern wing were the last nails in the coffin of ship-owners. It pains to see today that we are 100% dependent on foreign flag vessels for containerised and bulk cargo, with the exception of 8/10 mill tons crude oil being lifted by public sector Pak flag ships. Since two more tankers are set to be scrapped by 2010, due to CAS of the IMO convention, our share in crude lifting will also be lifted by chartered foreign-flag tankers.
There is only one ship-owing company in the public sector, with nine vessels and by 2010, we will be left with 7 vessels, 6 being over 30 years old, ready for demolition too. We, in our life time, will never see ship owing, under the Pak flag reverting to the respectable statues of 60/70's, it pains that we will be virtually left with minimal or no market share in the country's overseas trade.
Commerce and trade will be almost 100% dependent on foreign-flag ships and their dictates, thus harming our Expo/Impo both, making it un-competitive in the world market. We are in deep trouble and heading for dooms day, whilst the Ministry concerned is in deep slumber, having no expertise of maritime nor any future plans. I really wonder, why the Commerce Ministry and the Chambers of Commerce do not take up this important issue with the Government and Planning Commission to provide ship owing a loan assistance scheme for fleet expansion, as practised in India.
No serious efforts were made on our part except adhoc measures to induce ship owing under Pak flag, to facilitate boosting exports, to bridge the trade deficit of 12 billion USD. India has 9m gross tonnage fleet, but nearly 44% is expected to be phased-out by 2011/2012 and they have plans in the Ministry to expand to 11m gross tonnage by 2011/2012. In case we lack the capacity to plan, we may cut and paste Indian plans with logical amendments to suit our conditions.
Indian owners were enjoying only 14% market share in overseas trade in 2007/2008, but the same has now plunged to mere 9.5% due to recession and economic growth of 6% from 9% in the preceding year. Indian policy makers have highlighted that the Indian domestic fleet is relatively small, compared to the size of economy.
Pakistan's coal imports of about 6 million tons and growing cement exports worth 7.7 million tons in 2007/2008 and our surplus capacity to produce cement may encourage the factory owners of cement to venture into ship-owing under Pak flag, with the Government/ Planning Commission committing to the loan assistance scheme. It is surely a viable proposal for cement exporters being 6th largest exporter in the world behind Germany with 8.3 mill tons, Turkey with 10.6 mill tons and China being first with 26 mill tons. Cement factories are also major importers of coal to keep their furnace of cement plants warm, giving surplus produce to export.
The ship owning by cement factories promises a two-way trade. Furthermore with amendment in shipping protocol with India, our new private-proposed owners can benefit with Indian cargo as their fleet is lifting only 9.5% of overseas trade. Cement factory owners should form a consortium and buy some good second-hand tonnage, which is cheap now and give a kick-start to ship owning in the private sector under the Pak flag.
A feasibility study is imperative before they embark on such adventures and the Government must commit whole-hearted support by giving loan assistance to the new prospective private or public sector, both, so that we may have a moderate fleet to cater to our needs in case of any blockade or emergency and also to combat dictation by foreign flag ships, boost our exports, by offering competitive freight rates and cutting down the drain of 3.5 billion US Dollars freight cost being siphoned.
Since the Planning Commission is seriously working on a 5 years plan, it is worth consideration. Prospective ship-owners must comprehend that shipping requires a new set of skills for new comers as it is both an asset and a knowledge based business, requiring specialised commercial / technical skills to address IMO conventions, being internationally compliant Our planning commission must read the blueprint of the Indian plan of loan assistance and study their 12 billion dollar national maritime development programme (NMDP), announced in 2005 and the benefits achieved.
The Indian Government has plans to award a contract this year, worth some 4.25 billion USD on 14 projects to be completed within four years. In case we are shy to copy India, please look on the blueprints of Bangladesh, which has emerged as a shipbuilding nation, whilst years back they were only demolishing scrap vessels.
Their fleet in the private sector has grown so shipbuilding has progressed, whereas our good old Karachi shipyard stands nowhere and attending the captive business of the Pak Navy only. Pakistanis are blessed with potential, but we need consistency in our policy and placement of people on merit to draw our policy vision 2020.
The skill of policymakers need not be creative, but at least they may cut and paste the latest policy from region, as they closely addressed our needs. "Resources are limited, but creativity is unlimited". We, have a pool of creative Pakistanis that need to be harnessed strictly on merits.
The 1973 nationalisation and breaking of our eastern wing were the last nails in the coffin of ship-owners. It pains to see today that we are 100% dependent on foreign flag vessels for containerised and bulk cargo, with the exception of 8/10 mill tons crude oil being lifted by public sector Pak flag ships. Since two more tankers are set to be scrapped by 2010, due to CAS of the IMO convention, our share in crude lifting will also be lifted by chartered foreign-flag tankers.
There is only one ship-owing company in the public sector, with nine vessels and by 2010, we will be left with 7 vessels, 6 being over 30 years old, ready for demolition too. We, in our life time, will never see ship owing, under the Pak flag reverting to the respectable statues of 60/70's, it pains that we will be virtually left with minimal or no market share in the country's overseas trade.
Commerce and trade will be almost 100% dependent on foreign-flag ships and their dictates, thus harming our Expo/Impo both, making it un-competitive in the world market. We are in deep trouble and heading for dooms day, whilst the Ministry concerned is in deep slumber, having no expertise of maritime nor any future plans. I really wonder, why the Commerce Ministry and the Chambers of Commerce do not take up this important issue with the Government and Planning Commission to provide ship owing a loan assistance scheme for fleet expansion, as practised in India.
No serious efforts were made on our part except adhoc measures to induce ship owing under Pak flag, to facilitate boosting exports, to bridge the trade deficit of 12 billion USD. India has 9m gross tonnage fleet, but nearly 44% is expected to be phased-out by 2011/2012 and they have plans in the Ministry to expand to 11m gross tonnage by 2011/2012. In case we lack the capacity to plan, we may cut and paste Indian plans with logical amendments to suit our conditions.
Indian owners were enjoying only 14% market share in overseas trade in 2007/2008, but the same has now plunged to mere 9.5% due to recession and economic growth of 6% from 9% in the preceding year. Indian policy makers have highlighted that the Indian domestic fleet is relatively small, compared to the size of economy.
Pakistan's coal imports of about 6 million tons and growing cement exports worth 7.7 million tons in 2007/2008 and our surplus capacity to produce cement may encourage the factory owners of cement to venture into ship-owing under Pak flag, with the Government/ Planning Commission committing to the loan assistance scheme. It is surely a viable proposal for cement exporters being 6th largest exporter in the world behind Germany with 8.3 mill tons, Turkey with 10.6 mill tons and China being first with 26 mill tons. Cement factories are also major importers of coal to keep their furnace of cement plants warm, giving surplus produce to export.
The ship owning by cement factories promises a two-way trade. Furthermore with amendment in shipping protocol with India, our new private-proposed owners can benefit with Indian cargo as their fleet is lifting only 9.5% of overseas trade. Cement factory owners should form a consortium and buy some good second-hand tonnage, which is cheap now and give a kick-start to ship owning in the private sector under the Pak flag.
A feasibility study is imperative before they embark on such adventures and the Government must commit whole-hearted support by giving loan assistance to the new prospective private or public sector, both, so that we may have a moderate fleet to cater to our needs in case of any blockade or emergency and also to combat dictation by foreign flag ships, boost our exports, by offering competitive freight rates and cutting down the drain of 3.5 billion US Dollars freight cost being siphoned.
Since the Planning Commission is seriously working on a 5 years plan, it is worth consideration. Prospective ship-owners must comprehend that shipping requires a new set of skills for new comers as it is both an asset and a knowledge based business, requiring specialised commercial / technical skills to address IMO conventions, being internationally compliant Our planning commission must read the blueprint of the Indian plan of loan assistance and study their 12 billion dollar national maritime development programme (NMDP), announced in 2005 and the benefits achieved.
The Indian Government has plans to award a contract this year, worth some 4.25 billion USD on 14 projects to be completed within four years. In case we are shy to copy India, please look on the blueprints of Bangladesh, which has emerged as a shipbuilding nation, whilst years back they were only demolishing scrap vessels.
Their fleet in the private sector has grown so shipbuilding has progressed, whereas our good old Karachi shipyard stands nowhere and attending the captive business of the Pak Navy only. Pakistanis are blessed with potential, but we need consistency in our policy and placement of people on merit to draw our policy vision 2020.
The skill of policymakers need not be creative, but at least they may cut and paste the latest policy from region, as they closely addressed our needs. "Resources are limited, but creativity is unlimited". We, have a pool of creative Pakistanis that need to be harnessed strictly on merits.
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